Our markets have opened in negative territory, owing the global cues, and bottom fishing by funds around 4910-4920 levels saw short covering to some extent, however, Nifty gyrated between 4914 and 4994 for large part of the trading, and last half an hour short covering by intra day traders pushed it above 5000 levels, to close at the upper end of the day's range. VIX moved up by 14% to 31.50, as indicated on the weekly review, the volatility increased. Our prognosis that 4900 would find some support this week also came true. IIP numbers March' 08 have shown one of the lowest y-o-y growth at paltry 3% which spooked the markets intra day. The actual analysis shown that month on month they are o.k. and in tune with GDP forecast, have given relief later. However, one thing is for certain that the Manufacturing sector and Capital Goods sector are showing signs of slowing down since January'08, due to high in put costs, and sleuth of the measures already initiated by Government, and further measures in store, would effect these sectors in the months to come. Agriculture which is the main occupation of 70% population living in our country is not showing any growth, for the past several years, though successive governments are targetting growth of 4% in every Five Year Plan document and yearly forecast by Planning Commission. Ground reality is: with increase in population and people's preference changing quickly due to growing incomes, to have quality food products, less than expected performance of 'Agriculture Sector' would push our country also to serious trouble in the years to come.
US markets have traded firm and closed strong overnight, ignoring bad performance from insurers etc., since the crude and commodities started cooling a bit, investors went on to cherry picking in battered markets. CBOE index is at its lowest level around 18, indicates stability in US markets. Asian markets are trading positive, Singapore Nifty Futures are currently trading at premium of 3 points, will give positive opening for our markets too initially. Nifty might face resistance at 5DSMA currently placed at 5071.42 and the follow up buying if emerges today can only bring the markets out of the bear grip. Any fall due to bear pressure should find support at 20DSMA placed at 4918.30 today.
Range for the Day: Nifty might trade in the range of 4920 to 5080.
Strategy for the Day: Buy a straddle of 5000 at the opening and trade on both sides capturing the volatility for quick returns.
1 comment:
THANK YOU
Post a Comment