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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Crude rallies to $122.35 and markets correct further!

Our markets correted amidst slight volatility, and closed in negative territory for the second consecutive day. Nty took support at 5110.90 exactly, the lower end of the intraday range anticipated by us, yesterday and bounced from there, finally Nifty futures have closed at 30 points premium to the spot, indicating covering of shorts at lower levels and building of long positions too. Both Nifty and Sensex have breached 200DSMA levels in the process and are dangerously poised threatening that the markets might slip into bearish mode once again. Crude touched $122.35 overnight and cooled from there due to profit booking. Goldman Sachs predicts that it might touch 150 to 200 in the coming 6 months, if the weakness in the dollar continues and supply concerns increase in future, as demand is ever increasing. Indian crude basket has touched $112 highest point, and the Oil marketing companies owned by government are loosing Rs.450 crores per day due to control pricing of petroleum products. Reliance Industries major private player has closed 1432 retail pumps all over the country, owned by the company, since they are at disadvantage against govt. controlled OMCs which receive subsidy to some extent. The future outlook paints difficult times for the economy, manufacturing sector and consumers too, due to this one commodity reaching such unprecedented levels.

US markets opened weak initially, and recovered quickly and closed positive at the end of the session. VIX closed at 24.91, indicating low volatility. Singapore Nifty futures are trading at 10 points discount currently, and asian markets are trading mixed, thus our markets should open positive and move up and shall face the first resistance at 200DSMA currently placed at 5171.12(Nifty) & 17521.96(Sensex); and if short covering and buying emerges should close above these levels today to avert deeper correction to set in.

Range for the Day: Nifty might trade between 5100 to 5300 today.

Strategy for the Day: Buy 5300 puts on rallies and 5100 calls on weakness for intraday trading.

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