Markets opened weak and traded in negative territory though out, though several attempts were made by bull camp to keep the indices above crucial 50DSMA support, which was mentioned as last hope, and finally, indices have closed in negative territory, below these levels.One silverlining was, we have out performed asian peers, with lesser losses. US markets were closed yesterday due to 'Memorial Day Holiday". VIX has closed at 33.01 with small fall over previous session. Asian markets are trading positive, Singapore Nifty futures are currently quoting at 5 points discount suggesting flat opening for our markets initially, but since this is settlement week and still large positions are outstanding, which need to be rolled over to next month, or closed before or by settlement date, volatility can be very high.
With yesterday's weakness and fall, Sensex has given bearish signal (reversing the medium trend downwards) in Japanese Candle Sticks charts, thus, investors need to hedge their portfolios duly, should devoid picking stocks on declines, as it would be like catching falling knife, which will be quite dangerous. One need to realise that the extraordinary bull run ended in January,2008, and currently we are into bearish trading range, which gives upthrusts as well down falls. This range shall continue at least till October' 2008, by which time, half yearly performance of corporates, GDP and situation on inflation and postion of crude etc., will be clearer where one can expect some stability for the markets. It will be sideways downward trending markets till such time, which gives ample opportunities for trading only, not investing. Thus professional traders, with strict discipline, can make money in these markets.
Range for the Day: Nifty might trade in the range of 4830 to 4980.
Strategy for the Day: Buy 4800 calls on weakness and 5000 puts on rallies in current series for quick returns.
3 comments:
Dear Mr.Rao,
Somebody predicts the Crude will hit 150$ in next few months and some even predict even 200$. How really this will affect the sentiment of the present market?
If it happens, it will be disastrous for equities and economies world wide.
Our indices shall fall by 45 to 50%levels from January'2008 top, when ever it happens.
Dear Mr.Rao,
I hope crude won't hit 150 in near term inturn it will ease to 120-125 within a week. Sure there will be bounce back from these levels. I can assure there will be a short term rally ready to hit on June 2008. For this I hope easing of crude will be a major factor
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