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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Government of India announces Austerity Measures!

Finance Minister has announced austerity measures to control and cut non-plan expenditure. All the Ministers and M.P.s cutting across party lines welcomed the measures and started implementing too immediately, is a welcome measure. Monsoon reported to scanty in some parts and agcultural product prices not cooperating to come down, poses greater threat our country which has to fed second largest population in the world. Raising inflation will pickup further in the months and higher inflation will hurt the recovery of economic growth which is showin signs of stabilization.

Today is the last day for depositing 'Advance Tax' ...by Corporates and the figures will be available to market players and analysts, who would like to guage the profitability for this quarter and the performance of economy for the first half of 2009-10 will be known. Coming to Stock markets, OIL stock is allotted at Rs.1050 (higher end of price range). Nifty is holding 4780 in a tight range of volatile trade on monday if making lower tops and lower bottoms since last tues day, indicating lack of conviction to move on after huge rally from 4580 levels to 4890 at a stretch.

With US markets closing in positive territory, after initial weakness overnight, confirms that liquidity strength pushing the indices world over, with no real palpable positive economic news being visible, is to be taken note. One interesting feature is US Dollar is weak in general and INR also showing weakness makes things complicated for predicting the trend. However, our indices are moving a narrow band and it could be consolidation or distribution by large players, as indices have doubled from march lows. Break out or Break down requires one external factor which will confirm the formation of intermediate top and reversal of the trend. Many analysts voicing that new bull market has started since a bottom was in place, reminds me of 'consensus theory' generally markets ignore and surprise every one moving in opposite direction.

Be watchful and careful if you are a day trader. It is not a bad idea to take some profits out of the markets and increase cash levels.


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