Well all readers should be wondering why I am absent for such a long time! I am back now, having completed some project on hand. Recently all stock markets have broken out of trading range and are inching up where many analysts are confirming that a bottom was formed already. The hope is again building up that inflation under control and fears of recession fading out in developed economies, equities as an asset class are being looked by small and retail investors.
No doubt that our markets are in firm bull grip, thanks to the liquiity flowing from developed economies long only funds, indices are moving up. Well are we into a new bull phase?? My answer is strong 'No'. The previous highs are not going to be taken so easily, as lot of pit falls and land mines are on way down. One interesting and wondering feature, I notice is Rupee is weak, in spite FII flows and markets doing well, suggests that the fiscal position of Indian Economy, interest rate scenario in future might be a cause of concern.
However, if one wishes to have some risk taking appetite, can play with Nifty Options. One can buy 4800 Straddle of current month (September) and try to make some money, as volatility sets in from now on.
2 comments:
welcome back ji.
we miss you so much. So do you think market may fall from hereon?
would you advise to buying october puts and keep it till expiry for a target of 4000 in nifty?
saba
Well Sabaji,
Thanks. 4000 Nifty Put of October is quite far away. Markets went up by 15% on 18.05.2009 making a huge upward gap, which needs to be filled before the real bull market and further advances happen in our stock markets.
If you wish to buy Naked put of October it should 4900 strike price when ever, nifty goes to that level, as results might be disappointing for this quarter, which might bring down the much awaited deep correction.
Remember our markets are posting monthly gains for past 5 months since april'09, 5 being fibonacci number also suggests reversal of trend.
bkvrkrao
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