How will November month unfold??

October month has witnessed the 52 weeks high by Diwali and deep cuts in our markets and also amongst global markets later on, owing to domestic as well as global cues. Both October derivatives settlement and monthly closing posted negative returns over September. Now the mute question is whether the rally ended by 17.10.2009 highs for our markets and are we to witness further deeper cuts and sell offs, as the turn of events unfold!!. Many analysts are looking at a maximum relief rally, if it happens from here or later cannot surpass 4920 or 5000 on Nifty during November.Markets having corrected already 10% from their 52 week highs would post another 5% or more correction is the most preferred view. Now in this back drop where will November series and monthly closing would happen important.

October series ended at 4750 while monthly closing was at 4711, these are the bench mark levels for bulls to defend, if there has to be a relief rally or if one is over enthusiastic for resumption of the rally after this 10% correction. Most of the funds and analysts are advocating sell on rallies, instead of buy on weakness which was the dictum for the past 5 months, when the rally began in March, 2009. RIL being weak due to the litigation takes and twists before Supreme Court, has to lead the rally or relief rally which is possible once there is settlement on Gas Pricing Issue between brothers, and a clear policy from Government, as the power and fertilizer projects viability is dependent on the chief raw material, where ascertainment of price is must. AGM of RIL is scheduled for 17th November where the 1:1 bonus issue will be approved and a record date will be finalised, before AGM or Record Date to be announced (later) if this issue is resolved amicablly privately, through arbitration, or through Governmetn action, that could be turning point for the bell weather stock which can decide the future of our markets. Thus, the bearishness shall coninue till this one issue is resolved.

November might witness a range of 4500 to 5000 in my assessment and Nifty is currently exactly at the middle level. Professional traders can buy puts when there is upside and calls on weakness at the money for quick returns with adequate stop losses, owing to one's risk perception.

Nifty Range for the Day: 4600 - 4650 - 4750 - 4800.