Inspite of outstanding results from Tech heavies, assured GDP growth @ 6.5% from Government Of India, profit booking has set in from Diwali Muhurat Trading. Crude touched $ 82 over night however cooled off to 80 levels. Dow though opened in positive territory overnight closed with losses on profit booking. The overall sentiment in global markets also is turning out to be cautious, since valuations are prohibiting further investments by even institutions.
Inflation data will be released during market hours, which shall show an uptick, forecast by RBI and GOI is that it would be 5% by March 2010. Inflation data base being shifted from 1993 to 2004 and the data will be released once in a month from Nov onwards. Poll results of Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh will be known today, where UPA is likely to hold its strength and improve, which if happens, might infuse confidence among overseas investors, as they look for continuation of policy initiatives.
Disvestment by PSUs viz., NTPC & SAIL through FPO and other corporates planning for raising capital in the coming months, shall keep interest of investors bifurcated between primary and seconday markets. Keeping all these aspects in view, indices will go into consolidation phase for some time, and look for positive cues like settlement of RIL-RNRL gas price dispute which is being heard on daily basis at Supreme Court might push markets above recent highs Nifty(5181) & Sensex(17493) alternatively, raise in petrol and diesel prices by month end and any monetary tightening measures by RBI in its mid term appraisal on 27th, shall bring in more correction. RBI's advise to banks to declare "Base Rate" instead of BPLR which in vogue if adopted will be positive for banking sector, which need to improve their margins to meet the impending cost increase due to possible wage revision agreement of 17.5% hike for employees and officers, before this financial year.
The long term story of Indian Stock Markets is in tact, as GDP is registering good growth, inspite of recession in major developed economies, and excellent corporate performance, as most of them depend on internal consumption unlike other economies like Japan and South East Asian Countries.
Watch 5000 on Nifty for clues of reversal of trend upwards, since I feel that Nifty has consolidated well in the zone of 4500 to 5000 and moved in to the band of 5000 to 5500. If this thesis becomes real investing around 5000 levels in Nifty will fetch huge returns by December' 2009. However, volatility shall increase from now on, as the fight between long term bulls and short term bears heats up!
Range for the Nifty today: 5000 - 5050- 5080 - 5120.
No comments:
Post a Comment