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Thursday, December 18, 2008

US Fed has done what it could do Finally! What else could be done to revive its economy?

I am just out of markets for a while concentrating on some project work, since only trading helps. US Fed has brought the rates to 0.25% the lowest and almost the next step could be follow Japan's way, of charging interest for keeping funds with Fed! Interest rate is a tool of monetary measures, which alone cannot stop recession, or revive economy, which I advocated some time back, now the prognosis has proved to be right.
 
US economy is suffering from excesses of past decades, and the protectionist approach it had to tourism after 9/11 incidents. Over leveraging by individuals and institutions, have spurred growth for some time, when defaults started haunting, every thing is collapsing like 'pack of cards'.
 
The real problem can be solved by prudence in spending and creating congenial atmosphere for growth, employment, productivity etc., which can revive US economy and inturn the world economy too, as it is the major part of global economy. US dollar being the defacto currency of the world trade, will influence the balance of payments of other countries to a large account.
 
Whether Indian markets especially Sensex closes above 10000 level at the year end will be crucial for knowing the trend for next year, corresponding level on Nifty shall be 3000!
 
Indian rupee has formed a tripple top at 50.50-50.70, which might bring some inflow of dollars in to indian economy and markets. Watch for the exchange rate movement for clues of our markets revival too.
 
Happy Trading!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

we miss you sir.

do you have any position? also do you have any levels for nifty for january 2009?

we fear results season may bring big fall.any comments rao sir?

saba

Anonymous said...

Hi saba,

I am completely out of markets. No positions.

2009 shall give some relief to our markets. The lows made on 27.11.2008 might be retested some time, from where some consolidation takes place, for the next bull charge may be after 2 or 3 years!

Happy christmas.

bkvrkrao

Unknown said...

hello sir,

Unknown said...

hello sir,

i would like to know..wat would be the future of nifty in jan...

ravi...

Anonymous said...

Hi Ravindra,

I will give my view for Jan' 2009 and year 2009 on 03.01.2009 posting.

bkvrkrao