Our markets traded in a narrow range, for the first time on derivatives settlement day first time in 2008, and Nifty closed around June Settlement price finally. Unlike earlier settlements, Nifty futures roll over was lower than average to August Series, and only long positions are rolled over. Market players might be hedging their portfolios using options rather than futures. VIX has closed at 39.06, falling further from previous day levels. August nifty futures have closed at 2 points premium at the end on adjusted basis. 50DSMA levels of indices continued to be road blocks for bulls to cross currently placed at Nifty (4358.01) & Sensex (14578.92). Inflation has shown an uptick to 11.98%, inching towards 12% levels, and every major bank has decided to raise PLR and Deposit rates in tune with the recent RBI credit policy dictat, to check credit growth and money supply. US GDP growth has shown an uptick to 1.9% but was below economists expectations at 2.4% has made investors nervous and Dow had a sell off. Singapore Nifty futures are currently quoting at a discount of 78 points indicating weak opening for our markets initially. Asian markets are already trading in negative territory.
FOMC meet scheduled on 5th August, 2008 will be watched by clues on Fed action on rates in US which will decide the medium trend for global markets. Today being week end profit booking can be expected. The final closing can be lower than previous week's closing on our indices, which were posting weekly gains for the past 3 weeks, after 7 consecutive weeks of fall last month. Investors have to be cautious during this month, where the actual monsoon data over entire india will be known, where it is being feared that the rain fall may be deficient than previous years, which will complicate the inflation and economic growth situation domestically. Trading opportunities exist in plenty, whereas reckless building longs in stocks or derivatives will wipe out people entirely from markets for ever.
Range for the Day: Nifty might trade in the range 4200 to 4350 today.
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