Both the indices have closed postively on the last day week and month, compared to previous day, at and around 5DSMA levels, Nifty(4871.71) & Sensex(16376.26). However, week on week and month on month comparision indices have closed negatively. Inflation data released on last friday has crossed 8% level finally, as feared, inspite of several measures initiated by Government & RBI started showing some effect. GDP data for Q4 was at 8.8% and the overall yearly growth stood at 9% for 2007-2008 was a comforting feature for the governement that the growth momentum and trajectory are not disturbed. Since the growth is on, to check inflation whether RBI would tinker with the interest rates is being guessed by market players and investors, that is the main reason for interest rate sensitives to face selling pressure during the week. CBOE index is down to 17 indicating lesser volatility for US markets and similarly, VIX closed down at 26.68 indicates further lesser volatility for our markets too.
US markets have closed flat on friday night, our markets will focus on monsoon which is likely hit kerala coast, where MET Dept predicts normal rain fall this year, should be good news for our domestic economy. Next week and there after, markets will be trading in a narrow range, since psychological fear of 'may mahem' and bottom formation in and around may month, as per cycles being talked by many analysts are put to rest. More or less our markets are currently discounting every bad news and not facing deeper cuts, is a positive sign, but the nervous at higher levels is continuing, since FIIs are sellers on most of the days during last month. Thus, devoid of any major news flow, markets will go into trading range till 15th June' 08, by which date advance tax numbers by corporates will be known. The expectations of Q1 performance will be priced in by markets players sector wise, company wise from there on, possibly giving a break out of the range.
Range for the Week: Nifty might trade in the range of 4750 to 5050.
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